Jays Notes

There’s been lots to talk about in camp Blue Jays these days. Here’s one man’s opinion on all of the Jay’s happenings.

Guerrero Signing
Low risk usually means low reward, and if we were to calculate the odds of the Guerrero signing working out positively, little to no contribution from Vlad is probably the most likely outcome. That isn’t to say however, the Jays can’t get lucky and, as Eno Sarris pointed out, see Guerrero enjoy some success against lefties in the DH slot. Production aside, the chance to see a player as prestigious as Guerrero in a Jays uniform and the possibility of the comic bedlam that would ensue if he saw time in the field, is reason enough to give Vlad a shot.

Lawrie Suspension
To borrow a page from the realist school of international relations (I’ve been out of school for a while now, so I hope I have this right), if we want to curb this type of behaviour, we need MLB to flex some muscle. If the league really wants to create a disincentive for this kind of behaviour, hit the player where it hurts and fine them. It boils my blood as much as the next guy to see umpires entice players - I am happy to see umpires like Bob Davidson get his come-uppins, but I’m still not sold on robot umpires just yet.

Hot(ish) Start and Playoff Chances
Let’s talk in late July. Did we not learn anything from last year’s collapses? Baltimore was in first place last year too and it didn’t last. So was Cleveland. Boston won’t be under .500 for much longer either. While they Jays are off to a pretty decent start, the good folks at Getting Blanked pointed that some of the starting pitcher’s peripheral stats (K/ BB rate, BABIP) suggest that a regression may be coming. As the Orioles will most likely prove, it’s probably too early to get excited. With that said, the Jays’ potential to improve, either through trades or the promotion of prospects means that there is more to be hopeful about this year than there was in the past. Fingers crossed.

Lind Demotion
It’s hard to see Lind sent down, everyone (myself included), was rooting for the happy-go-lucky Hoosier to succeed. As remote as it now appears that he will be able to figure things out, here’s hoping that he can still turn things around. Fresh on the heels of the Lind demotion, I can’t help but think of another underachieving Blue Jay: Colby Rasmus. Rasmus, has been almost as bad as Lind at the plate over the past season and a half (.216/.291/.365 slash line this season). I was very excited when I heard the Jays acquired Rasmus last year, but Rasmus is now almost 700 plate appearances removed from his 2010 season. In addition to providing defensive value that Lind cannot, Rasmus is also 3 years younger than Adam Lind.

Phillies Trade Rumors
If the Phillies are interested in trading Cole Hamels or Shane Victorino (and I doubt they are), bring ‘em on board. Hopefully the Jays’ are connected to lots of major trade candidates and free agents moving forward. Especially top line starting pitchers like Hamels. The Jays’ system appears to be deep enough that parting with one or two high tier prospects won’t deplete the system and I think they are close enough to contention that they can justify absorbing the additional salary. If it’s the right fit. This is no way an endorsement on signing Prince Fielder.

Fantasy Flyer: Rick Porcello

Few young pitchers have been more frustrating than Rick Porcello over the last few years – in both reality and in fantasy baseball. Like the girl harbouring a grudge when getting back into the dating game, we’ve all been “hurt before” by Rick Porcello types. But this year, in deep leagues, It might be worthwhile to once again roll the dice on Porcello. If he is able to put things together, Porcello could provide surprising value at the back of your fantasy rotation.

One of the biggest storylines coming into 2012, was the Tigers’ abhorrent infield defence. Porcello, along with fellow groundball inducer, Doug Fister, were the pitchers believed to suffer most from Detroit’s infield made of stone. While the Tigers’ infield defence will no doubt hurt him, Detroit institutions Miguel Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta have been hurting Porcello’s numbers for the last few years. The addition of Fielder may not be as drastic as we are led to believe. The increase in WHIP and ERA may be offset by the extra win opportunities Procello should have playing for the Tigers and pitching in the AL Central.

Infield defence and win totals aside, there are other reasons why I am optimistic Porcello can be a good buy low fantasy candidate. Right now, Porcello has an ERA of 5.64 and xFIP of 3.64. The past two seasons, Porcello has posted ERA’s of 4.92 and 4.75 while his xFIP has come in at 4.24 and 4.04. While the poor Tigers defence will probably continue lead to an ERA that remains somewhat higher than his xFIP; Porcello’s xFIP does suggest that we should see some improvement in his performance. There is also reason to be slightly optimistic about Porcello’s ability to build further upon his skillset. Right now, Porcello’s value comes from his ability to prevent walks and induce groundballs. Mike Podhorzer at Fangraphs has noted that Porcello has increased his fastball velocity by 1.7 mph this year. If Porcello is able to increase his strikeout rate to over 5 K/9; like it was in the minor leagues, it would go a long way in adding to his fantasy value.

To pepper in some anecdotal evidence. Baseball Prospectus scouts Kevin Goldstein and Jason Parkes (on their podcast Up and In), both discussed that coming into the 2012 season, neither would be surprised if Porcello can put it all together and take the next step. Keith Law, scout for ESPN, has also written that he believes Porcello improve on his 2011 performance. It’s also easy to forget that Porcello is still only 23 years old. To assume he has reached his peak may be premature. While it also may be premature to roster Porcello in a standard 10 team mixed league, in deeper leagues, gambling on Porcello now may pay off sooner rather than later.

Maybe, Possibly, Potentially: Why Bad Closers Mean Some Managers Might Be Thinking Differently About Bullpen Management

Among the analytical and Sabermetic community of baseball writers, one issue that generates more scorn per capita than any other topic is Major League organizations’ use of relief pitchers. Central to this criticism are managers, “managing to the save”. Managing to the save means assigning one reliever, in most cases your best, to pitch the last inning of any game where your team is leading by one to three runs. Hence this reliever gets the save.

A long line of writers and analysts have screamed like Al Pacino in Scarface about how this is a misusage of bullpen arms. To summarize a body of work that is vast, precise, and usually unnecessarily cruel; pigeonholing your best pitcher into a role that requires he pitch one inning (and one inning only) at the very end of the game when a save is on the line is not the best way to use your top bullpen arm. The reasoning suggests that there are many instances where using your best reliever earlier in the game during a tight situation - say for example, in the 7th inning of a tie game with the heart of the order coming up, is more valuable. Admittedly, this is a quick and dirty version of the how Major League teams could better utilize their bullpens; but it’s not hard to see that having your closer come in with a three run lead in the bottom of the 9th to face a lineup’s 7-9 hitters is not necessarily getting the most bang for your buck.

Typically, this new type of thinking has been ignored by Major League clubs, who continue to trot their best relief pitcher out in ninth inning save situations. They tend to use this anointed closer regardless of platoon splits or any of the other factors mentioned above. Over the past couple of years however, there have been a few managers on the block that look like they could be interpreted as trying something differently; if you look at it in the right light that is.

To be clear, no manager has come out and said that anything that refers to a more progressive approach to bullpen management. But even if someone is trying to do things differently, why make it into an issue and create a story in the media? Big league managers are in a different position than people looking at the game from a purely analytic role. There is more to lose and people to answer to. With that said, certain managers, like Robin Ventura, Don Mattingly and Joe Maddon have made the “peculiar” decision to appoint someone other than their best reliever as the team’s closer. In the right light, this may suggest that maybe (and it is a big maybe), they are thinking a little differently about bullpen management.
In Chicago, Ventura has chosen to use Hector Santiago in many of the team’s save situations, instead of the harder throwing Matt Thornton and Addison Reed. Using Santiago in a majority of save situations, frees up Reed and Thornton to pitch in higher leverage situations that the game dictates. Meanwhile, in Los Angeles, sophomore manager Don Mattingly has chosen to stick with closer Javy Guerra instead of turning the job over to dominating setup man, Kenley Jansen; much to the chagrin of fantasy owners everywhere. Like Ventura and Mattingly, the always forward thinking Joe Maddon has elected to use Fernando Rodney instead of Jake McGee or Joel Peralta. By refraining from committing their best reliever to work the 9th inning, these managers are free to use their most dominant bullpen arms as they see fit.

After Sunday’s game, in which Matt Thornton, not “closer” Hector Santiago, was sent out to pitch the 9th inning, rookie manager Ventura, made comments that could be interpreted in a way that suggest he may be going against the old baseball wisdom of defined bullpen roles. Ventura said the following to Kerry Walls of MLB.com about managing his pen:
"I think it kind of goes with the game and how games are going," Ventura said, "how guys are feeling. I feel like I understand it. It's just more of getting to know your guys and who might need a day and who might not. But the game kind of dictates what happens."

He isn’t coming out and saying that they don’t need a defined closer, but he is suggesting that roles don’t need to be etched in stone.

Some may look at Fernando Rodney, Javy Guerra and Hector Santiago and see ineffective closers. If you’re being optimistic, these closers could mark a changing of the guard in bullpen management. Like a Marxist interpretation of Die Hard, just because you can correlate something, doesn’t make it true, but change happens gradually in baseball, so maybe (and it’s a big maybe), not committing your best relief pitcher to the 9th inning is the first step to getting rid of rigid and defined bullpen roles that allow for a more fluid and ultimately more effective use of relief pitchers.

Jamie Moyer, Brandon Morrow and the Michael Pineda Injury

Jamie Moyer
One of my favourite baseball writers, Keith Law, has been very tough on Jamie Moyer’s recent comeback. Like many analytically oriented writers, he is quick to mention the power of the “narrative” in Moyer’s performance. Everyone gets that Moyer is running more on fumes at this point. Everyone understands that he hasn’t faced one of the leagues better offences and that he probably can’t continue to be an above average league starter. But can’t you give him at least a little bit of credit? The man is almost fifty years old and doing something that the vast majority of the population can’t do at their physical peak. Sure it’s more story than substantial analysis but some stories are worth telling. Kudos to you Jamie Moyer, I hope you keep getting the attention.

Brandon Nolasco
As a Blue Jays fan, it’s hard to accept things we just don’t want to be true. It was hard for us to come to terms with the fact that Aaron Hill isn’t a 30 home run hitter, or that the team isn’t one “proven closer” away from contention. We have to learn to live with the fact that Adeiny Hechavarria may not ever hit enough to play in the Major Leagues, or that Adam Lind may not revert to his 2009 form. The scariest of these hard truths is that Brandon Morrow may never realize his otherworldly potential and become an ace. Morrow is now entering his third year as a full time starter with the Jays and has not yet been able to harness his potential, despite strong peripheral stats (xFIP and K/9). I know it’s very early in the season, but Morrow also has two full years of pitching exactly like he has thus far to include in his sample size. I don’t want to accept it, but someday soon, we might need to take Morrow to be one of the rare pitchers who despite positive peripheral statistics and enormous raw stuff, is not able to translate this into on field results. Like the Marlins’ Ricky Nolasco


Michael Pineda Injury
The news that Michael Pineda is out for the year with a torn labrum has led many (including Baseball Prospectus/Grantland writer Rany Jazayerli) to echo a familiar refrain: “this injury shows that hitting prospects are more valuable than pitching prospects”. The injury definitely throws a wrench into the Yankees plans for 2012; and the injury definitely raises question marks about Pineda’s future, but even with Pineda sidelined for the year, I think it’s a little premature to classify the Pineda trade as a failure. The Yankees have a potent offence. They are third in all of baseball in runs scored. That number shouldn’t drop too much as the season continues. The Yankees didn’t need Jesus Montero. They did need another top of the rotation pitcher. Teams have also started locking up their young starting pitchers. Matt Cain, Jarred Weaver, Brandon Morrow, Cory Luebke, and Madison Bumgarner have all signed contract extensions in the past twelve months. There are fewer and fewer high quality pitchers getting to free agency. Young pitching may be more volatile than young hitting, but that doesn’t mean it’s not more valuable. Especially to a team that has offence to spare and a hole in the top of their rotation. Remember that Pineda is out for the year, his career isn’t over. Even if the trade doesn’t work out, Brian Cashman and the Yankees shouldn’t be criticized for taking an area of strength (surplus of hitting) and trying to fill an area of weakness. Even if that pitcher gets hurt.

The All “Put Me In Coach” Team

Nothing is more frustrating to a baseball fan than watching a player you think can contribute ride the pine. If you were in charge, things would be different; and the team would be better off because of it. Like any other fan, I think I know better. Here is a list of players I would like to see penciled into the starting lineup every night.

Brandon Belt – Giants, 1B/OF
Technically he has a Major League job right now, but despite being one of the Giants better offensive players, Belt is always one 0-4 away from a demotion . As far as anyone can tell, Belt has been boxed out of the Giants lineup to ensure that 2010 World Series hero Aubrey Huff gets his hacks. The Giants’ handling of Belt is even more confusing given that they are playoff contender that could help improve the team’s anemic offence. If either Bruce Bochy or Brian Sabean could commit to starting Belt (I’m not picky - left field or first base will do), there would be a glut of baseball bloggers who would need to find someone else to lambaste. At least for a little while.

Lonnie Chisenhall - Indians, 3B
Chisenhall, who was called up to the majors last year, has begun the 2012 season at triple A. Chisenhall, may struggle at the major league level in the short term given his issues with plate discipline, but one of the reasons Indians’ management cited in sending him to AAA is that he was pressing at the plate. What better way to alleviate pressure than give him the starting job and the confidence that comes with knowing it’s secure? Cleveland is in need of offensive production, evidenced by the deal the team just negotiated with left fielder Johnny Damon. Chisenhall’s offensive upside is greater than incumbent Jack Hannahan. If the Tribe have any intention of making things interesting for Detroit in the AL Central, getting Chisenhall hitting will be a necessity. They can always have Hannahan ct as a late game defensive replacement if you really need his defence that badly.

Domenic Brown - Phillies, OF
Kevin Goldstein referred to Brown yesterday on twitter as the “East Coast Brandon Belt”. The Phillies are just as offensively starved as the Giants and have no player (they are currently starting Juan Pierre) blocking Brown in leftfield. According to EPSN’s Eric Karabell, Brown’s defence in left field is still very suspect, but he really shouldn’t be held out of a Phillies lineup that is already without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Brown would inject some much needed youth and upside to a lineup that needs to improve if the Phils are going to hang onto their NL East crown.

John Jaso – Mariners, C
Jaso is unlike the other players on this list; he is older and doesn’t have a particularly high ceiling. That doesn’t mean he isn’t worthy of more playing time, especially in Seattle. Currently, the Mariners are starting Miguel Olivo behind the plate every night. Jaso has started once this season, and that came as the DH. While Olivo can hit for more power than Jaso, that is the only thing he does better than him. Jaso could provide slightly better defence and more importantly, some much needed on-base skills (.341 career OBP) for an offensively challenged Mariners lineup. Olivo needs to hit a lot more than 19 home runs to make up for a .253 OBP. By the way, this is in no way bitterness related to me drafting Jaso as the second catcher in a very deep fantasy baseball league.

Travis Snider – Blue Jays, OF
The longer Snider stays in the minor leagues, the less likely it appears the talented outfielder will realize hit potential with the Blue Jays. According to some Blue Jays bloggers, Snider’s troubles lie in his inability to hit curveballs and lefthanders. At the end of March, the Blue Jays were not convinced that he had remedied the problem enough to strip Eric Thames of his job. Snider has more upside than any other left fielder in Toronto who is close to Major League ready. He is slugging .844 at Triple A this year and probably won’t fix anything that needs fixing in the Pacific Coast League. If Eric Thames struggles, giving Snider 400 at bats to learn on the job would go a long way in telling whether or not he has a future in Toronto. But that’s what we Snider fans have been advocating for the last three years.

Trevor Bauer – D-Backs, P
I am merely echoing what many qualified baseball bloggers and analysts have already said. Sure he is very young and inexperienced, but Bauer is having his way with minor league hitters and wouldn’t need to be more than a back of the rotation starter to be valuable to the Diamondbacks. If he matures quickly, Arizona could have another weapon in the front of their rotation. It doesn’t hurt that Bauer will be facing the pucnless Padres and Giants a good chunk of the time. Like a lot of teams mentioned above, if the Diamondbacks have intentions of contending, why not use every bullet in the chamber you can?

Not the Splash You’re Thinking Of – Why Chris Iannetta Might be Key to LA’s Success

Everyone knows about the Angels’ big offseason acquisitions. Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson were two of the top players on the market, and some combination of Jerry DiPoto and Arte Moreno were able to woo them both to Anaheim in one afternoon. Now both Pujols and Wilson are good players that should help the Angels compete with the Rangers in the AL West, but one acquisition that may be the key to their success is the less talked about acquisition of catcher Chris Iannetta.

Back in the winter of 2011, the Tony Reagins led Angels were involved in a string of events that resulted in trading Mike Napoli to the Rangers (via the Blue Jays) for Vernon Wells. Aside from taking on the never talked about Vernon Wells contract, the Angels lost their starting catcher. Or at least what should have been their starting catcher (I’m sure we’ve all heard plenty about Mike Scioscia’s displeasure with Napoli). With Napoli’s plus bat and poor catching skills in Texas, the road was paved for Jeff Mathis and Hank Conger to take over catching duties.

The Mathis/Conger catching platoon did not work out well for Los Angeles in 2011, leaving the many analysts who were opposed to giving Jeff Mathis 300 at bats saying “I told you so”. The two players combined for a WAR (Fangraphs’ version) of -0.5 last season. Chris Iannetta posted a 3.2 WAR in 2011 and has posted a WAR over 2 in three of the four seasons since 2008. Even in his abhorrent 2010 season, where he hit under .200, his .318 OBP was still better than Mathis’ and Conger’s. In one of Jerry DiPoto’s most underrated moves thus far, he was able to ween Mike Scioscia off Jeff Mathis and upgrade a position that was a major weakness for LA at the same time. When evaluating a team’s offseason transactions, it’s not just about who they are acquiring; it’s about who they are replacing. That’s why an upgrade at catcher for the Angels is so important, and why replacing Victor Martinez with Prince Fielder in Detroit may not be as impactful as many people believe it will be.

CJ Wilson strengthens an already talented rotation, and Albert Pujols is most definitely an upgrade over Mark Trumbo, but Iannetta provides value at a position that was an absolute black hole for the Angels last season. If the Angels do overtake Texas this season, we will justifiably hear about Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson. Let’s just not forget to give Chris Iannetta his credit either.

2012 National League Preview in 1,155 Words

NL East – Philadelphia Phillies
The National League East is beginning to look a lot like the ultra competitive American League East – four teams that should win more than they lose and one team you’d rather not think about. Washington (Gio Gonzalez) and Miami (Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle) both made significant offseason acquisitions, but until I know that Josh Johnson in Miami and Ryan Zimmerman in Washington, can stay off the DL, I am hesitant to think they can overtake Philadelphia or Atlanta. The Phillies took the NL East crown once again last year, despite a poor season from Ryan Howard and the usual time lost to injury by Chase Utley. Going into 2012, Howard and Utley will begin the season on the disabled list, leaving the Philadelphia offence without two of its better hitters. While the aging roster and declining offensive production makes it feel like the Phillies should be at the end of their rope, until one of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee or Cole Hamels are sidelined with a major injury, it’s hard to be against the Phills. I’ve done it before and learned my lesson, so going into 2012 I’m picking the Phillies to once again win the NL East.

NL Central – Milwaukee Brewers
It has not been a good spring for the Cincinnati Reds. New closer Ryan Madson is out for the season and new ace Mat Latos is suffering from a strained calf, although this injury may be minor. While the Reds have signalled all in by trading for Latos and Sean Marshall, there are too many question marks for me to pick them as division winners. Outside of Latos, the effectiveness of Johhny Cueto, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake is somewhat of an unknown. Can Scott Rolen stay healthy? What kind of season is Zack Cozart going to have? St. Louis should field a competitive team, but their offence, while potentially dangerous, is also pretty rickety and vulnerable to injury; Carlos Beltran, Lance Berkman, Rafael Furcal and David Freese have all lost significant time to injuries over the last two years. I think the Milwaukee Brewers are in a position to once again win the NL Central. While the offence did take a hit, Aramis Ramirez and Mat Gamel should be able to replace a fair bit of the production lost by Prince Fielder’s defection. Signing Alex Gonzalez to play shortstop should be a major defensive upgrade over Yuni Betancourt and I expect an even better season from Zack Greinke (2.56 xFIP verses 3.83 ERA), who pitched through some bad luck in 2011. Combined with Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf and Shaun Marcum the Brewers’ rotation posted the 2nd best starters’ xFIP (3.65) in the National League last year, while the bullpen posted an xFIP of 3.43, also good for second best. The NL Central is still the Brewers’ to lose.

NL West – Arizona Diamondbacks
For me, the NL West appears to be one of the most open divisions in baseball heading into 2012. For a team that has arguably the best position player and pitcher in the league in Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw, the LA Dodgers really don’t have much else. The Rockies, now with more Michael Cuddyer, are poised for another middle of the road finish, unless some of their young pitchers (Alex White, Drew Pomeranz) take major strides very quickly. The Arizona Diamondbacks, last year’s division champs, return a roster primarily intact, with the addition of Trevor Cahill to the rotation. While Ian Kennedy (3.50 xFIP, 2.88 ERA) and Josh Collmenter may regress, paired with Daniel Hudson and Cahill, Arizona fields a decent enough starting rotation. Outside of Justin Upton and Miguel Montero, their offense is nothing special, but their complimentary pieces (Jason Kubel, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Young, and Gerardo Perra) are probably better than anything the rest of the division is trotting out there. The song remains the same in San Francisco, where the pitching will be there, it’s just a question of how much offense the Giants’ can provide. Until San Fran shows that they are committed to playing Brandon Belt fulltime, it’s hard to get behind an offense that features, Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval and not much else. I’ll take the D-backs by a hair.

NL Wildcard – Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals
While most of the Cards’ key offensive pieces are major injury risks, St Louis should be able to hit enough to stay in contention. If these players go down for an extended period of time, the Cardinals’’ young arms (Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller and Jason Motte), along with Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Jamie Garcia, will be counted on to keep them competitive. I am much higher on the Braves than many (Eric Karabell and Mark Simon of Baseball Today, both projected Miami to finish ahead of Atlanta) heading into 2012. Health is a major issue for the Braves. Tommy Hanson, Jason Heyward, Jair Jurrjens and Chipper Jones are all key contributors with significant health issues heading into the season. With that said, the Braves are a deep team. Their pitching depth is no secret. Behind Hanson and Jurrjens, they have Tim Hudson and Brandon Beachy, two pitchers who also had very successful 2011 seasons. They also have young arms on the way, in the form of Randall Delgado, Mike Minor and Julio Teheran. The lineup is also a better than most people are giving them credit for. Aside from Jones and Heyward, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, Michael Bourn, Dan Uggla and Martin Prado all have the ability to be above average offensive players. Their bullpen is equally deep. Even if things go wrong, I think the Braves will find their way into the playoffs. Until Josh Johnson makes twenty starts for Miami, in think they are still on the outside looking in.

NL Rookie of the Year – Yonder Alonso, San Diego Padres
I can’t tell you who the 2012 NL ROY will be, but I can say that there is a very good chance that they have come out of the Cincinnati Reds farm system. It’s a wide open race. While Zack Cozart, Devin Mesoraco, and Yonder Alonso are all candidates, I’ll take Alonso based on the fact that playing for a non-contender means he should get the at bats to work through any growing pains and boost his counting stats (which worked out pretty well for Mark Trumbo last year).

NL MVP – Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins
Stanton is a beast that is ready to go off. He hit 34 ding dongs last year, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he hit 50 this year. There may be better all around players in the NL (Troy Tulowitzki and Justin Upton may be more deserving), but if Stanton has a Jose Bautista like offensive year, the votes will likely go to him. Plus, he should get a tonne of RBIs hitting behind Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez.